Latin America Looks Up

President George Bush has made more trips to Latin American than any other president before him. But Mr. Bush seems to have gotten a lot of frequent flier miles and not much else for all his trouble. For the U.S., Latin Americans have proven a difficult lot to handle. At times U.S. diplomats have thrown up their hands in frustration. They complain that when the U.S. leaves Latin America alone, cries of neglect echo around the hemisphere. When the U.S. gets engaged, Latin Americans scream about Uncle Sam’s heavy handed-intervention.

As Bush enters the twilight of his presidency, it appears his many trips haven’t saved him from going down as the most unpopular U.S. president. Indeed, during his eight years in the White House, U.S. influence in the region has fallen sharply. A number of countries—led by Venezuela’s fiery populist Hugo Chávez and including Ecuador’s irascible Rafael Correa and Bolivia’s first indigenous President Evo Morales—have delighted in pulling Uncle Sam’s beard. In September, Mr. Morales and Mr. Chávez booted their respective U.S. ambassadors. Even Honduras got into the game by holding off the official accreditation of an incoming U.S. envoy in sympathy with Morales and Chávez. As the late Rodney Dangerfield might have lamented, the U.S. “can’t get no respect.”

So given this dismal state of affairs, what may change once a new administration is sworn in next January?

Like Bush, Republican Sen. John McCain has traveled extensively through the region. As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during the 1980s, a period during which the region was a bloody Cold War battlefield, McCain made dozens of trips to Central America. In July, McCain made the first ever trip by a presidential candidate to the region, stopping in Colombia and Mexico. For Democratic Sen. Barrack Obama, who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia and whose father is African, Latin America is largely Terra Incognita. He has yet to set foot south of the border.

Neither candidate offers bold new departures for U.S. policy, although Obama says he is more willing to engage with U.S. foes such as Chávez and Cuba’s new head of state, Younger-Brother-For-Life Raúl Castro. The candidates have significant differences over two issues: the free trade agreement with Colombia stalled in U.S. Congress, and lifting restrictions on the ability of Cuban Americans to travel to the island and send money to their relatives there.

After the Bush years, many in Latin America, as in most of the world, are captivated by the possibility that Obama may become president. While some worry the Democrat may not be as friendly to free markets as McCain, there is wide agreement that after eight years of highly questioned U.S. unilateralism, Obama’s oft-expressed willingness to work with others would be a refreshing change. There is also some concern that as president, McCain would rely heavily on his current crop of hard-line Cuban American advisers including Otto Reich, the controversial former U.S. special envoy to Latin America. After Reich left that job in 2004, it was left unfilled. Obama has pledged to restore the position.

[VENEZUELA]

Venezuela continues to be the U.S.’s biggest regional challenge. For the last eight years, backed by soaring oil revenues, President Hugo Chávez has poured scorn on President Bush. He has allied himself with U.S. foes such as Colombia’s guerrillas, Iran and Russia, and has tried his best to stymie U.S. trade policies. He has refused to cooperate with anti-drug efforts. In spite of all this, the U.S. continues to be Venezuela’s most important trading partner. Venezuela continues to supply about 10 percent of the U.S.’s oil and petroleum products. Both candidates have expressed their disdain for Chávez and his anti-democratic tendencies. Both recognize the importance of reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Some analysts believe McCain would be more receptive to pressure from conservatives to take action against Chávez, including imposing economic sanctions. But given U.S. dependence on Mr. Chávez’ oil, options are limited. For instance, despite ample evidence of Venezuelan government ties to Colombian guerrillas involved in drug trafficking and considered terrorists by the U.S., the Bush administration has not placed Venezuela on its blacklist of countries that sponsor terror. If Obama were to be elected, his less bellicose attitude would no doubt help disarm Chávez’ anti-American rhetoric. Chávez would also be hard-pressed to continue attacks on the U.S.’s alleged racism.

[COLOMBIA]

The two candidates have the starkest difference over Colombia. McCain is a long-time admirer of Colombia’s Álvaro Uribe. He is a staunch supporter of Plan Colombia, the decade-old $5-billion military and police assistance program to help fight drugs and guerrillas, and of free trade. “McCain is absolutely resolute on that,” says adviser Ana Navarro. Obama has supported Plan Colombia and “understands the underlying importance of the Colombia-U.S. relationship,” says Dan Restrepo, a Colombian-American. But Obama has opposed the proposed free trade pact with Colombia over concerns for “lingering cases of abuses of unionists and the impunity surrounding such cases.” Obama doesn’t oppose free trade on principle—he supported free trade with Peru—but Restrepo says that “he wants to ensure that trade in a globalized economy works for workers.” Bottom line: If Colombia beefed up its protection of union workers, Obama could support its free trade bid. While opposition to free trade has emerged as a hot-button electoral issue with many Democrats, Obama, who recognizes Colombia’s impressive security gains, would be hard-pressed as president to leave Uribe, the U.S.’s closest ally in the region, in the lurch.

[ARGENTINA]

Argentines are still sore about what they perceive to be the U.S.’s abandonment during the financial turmoil that bankrupted the country in 2002. Relations were on the mend until the eruption of “Malega-gate” or suitcase-gate, which came after customs agents in Buenos Aires seized a suitcase jammed with $800,000 in money allegedly sent as a campaign contribution to President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner by political ally, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Since then, a criminal trial in Miami of a Venezuelan alleged to have been acting as Chávez’ unregistered agent has led to a wealth of revelations that have embarrassed and angered Mrs. Fernández de Kirchner. The next U.S. president will have to reassure Argentina that its suspicions of political motivations behind the Miami trial are unfounded, and put the two countries’ relationship back on track. Already suffering from high inflation, severe energy shortages, and a deep hostility between Mrs. Fernández de Kirchner and the nation’s powerful farmers, Argentina could face serious home-grown economic problems that would quickly eclipse allegations of Washington’s political dirty tricks.

[DOMINICAN REPUBLIC]

Energy shortages, high fuel prices and rising food bills are paralyzing the Dominican Republic. Daily blackouts can last as long as 18 hours. Gasoline has hit $6 a gallon. Schools and universities have virtually ground to a halt. Emotions are rising and angry residents take frequently to the streets, clashing with police. Recently re-elected president Leonel Fernández may struggle to come up with answers and may seek to use his considerable international prestige to seek help from the U.S. But the Dominican Republic’s reputation for cozy and corrupt relations between bankers and politicians may pose problems. If rebuffed by the U.S., Venezuela is on call.

[CHILE]

Chile continues to be Latin America’s biggest success story. It boasts a stable democracy, growing trade, sharply diminished poverty, and healthy relations with the U.S.

[MEXICO]

Whoever wins the election will have to deal with a ticking time bomb on its southern border. Mexico faces a daunting array of problems, from free-falling oil production to sharply rising drug violence and disappointing economic performance. Pessimism is settling in as President Felipe Calderón approaches midterm legislative elections next year. Under siege from losing leftist populist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President Calderón has been largely unable to address the country’s pressing need for reform. Most of the economy remains in the control of a handful of monopolistic billionaires who strangle competition and dampen economic growth. Mexico’s oil production is falling sharply, yet Calderon can’t push through the reform the state oil company needs to reverse its fortunes. In the meantime, Mexico’s crime, much of it drug related, has surged as powerful cartels battle for drug routes to the U.S. as well as growing Mexican markets. Calderón called out the army to reclaim the government’s sovereignty over large swaths of territory lost to drug cartels, but so far the drug dealers appear to have had the better of the fight. Concerned by the spreading chaos on its border, the U.S. passed the Merida initiative, a $1.4-billion plan to bolster security, which was strongly supported by McCain. Obama also supports the effort, but thinks more money should be spent in Central America and the Caribbean. Bush’s ambitious plans to improve relations with Mexico were quickly derailed by the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Mexican hopes for a comprehensive immigration deal were scratched. A drive to beef up security by building fences on the U.S. border have fueled immigration tensions. The new president will have to balance pressure from conservatives to keep Mexicans out with the need for comprehensive reform, recognized by both Democrats and Republicans. Before becoming the candidate, McCain was an ardent advocate of immigration reform. During the campaign his position shifted. It remains unclear what he will do should he win in November. Obama, also a reformer, will also have to tread carefully on this politically-charged issue. One consequence of the U.S.’s economic woes is that fewer Mexicans are heading north, and some are returning home, due to a lack of jobs.