You would think that the Latino electorate would have a lot to be pleased about after President Obama’s first year in office.
Take health care. Prior to reform, one in three Latinos did not have health insurance. Thanks to the landmark overhaul, some Latinos will benefit as early as late June when many of those uninsurable or “priced out” citizens with preexisting conditions will begin to see new insurance options. Also, small firms with less than 25 employees will soon be eligible for tax credits to help provide coverage for their workers.
Education, too, is looking brighter for Latinos as a new law will provide lower-income students with more aid for college. In addition, institutions that serve Hispanics, as well as black and tribal colleges, will receive $2.55 billion in direct grants.
Not bad, particularly since health and education tend to rank among the top concerns of Latinos. But on one critical issue—immigration—the Obama administration has not done much to impress Hispanics.
As of late, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel even seems to be avoiding the issue. When asked in an interview on March 25 about immigration and the administration’s other priorities, Emanuel named everything—financial reform, energy, campaign finance, Iraq and Afghanistan—but immigration.
To be sure that was not an oversight. Emanuel knows Obama promised to tackle comprehensive immigration reform his first year in office. Worse yet, the administration’s approach to current laws has been less than commendable.
For some time the White House has been saying that it would change the government’s immigration enforcement priorities and focus on deporting illegal immigrants who are considered dangerous or have violent criminal backgrounds. While the policy shift was initially praised, it turned out to be short-lived. On March 27, The Washington Post reported that immigration authorities have set quotas that encourage federal agents to deport non-criminal undocumented workers.
In the eyes of Maria Rodriguez, executive director of the Florida Immigrant Coalition, this is tantamount to imprisoning “nannies and landscapers,” while wasting resources that would be better used to protect the country from more serious threats. Rodriguez and other activists claim Immigration and Customs Enforcement has run amok and that its director, John Morton, should be fired.
Immigration is a very personal matter for most Latinos. Among registered Hispanic voters, 45 percent are naturalized citizens, 30 percent have immigrant parents, and 11 percent have immigrant grandparents. In a recently released poll by Bendixen & Amandi, two of three registered Latino voters reported having a friend, family member, neighbor, or co-worker who is undocumented.
Even if immigration is not the sole political concern of Latinos, it tends to mobilize the community like no other. On March 21, it did so again when some 200,000 marched on Washington to press for immigration reform. “Immigration is a family issue, a threshold issue. It’s about loved ones, about separated families,” Frank Sharry, executive director of the pro immigrant group America’s Voice, said in an interview. “That’s why 200,000 showed up [for that march] and you didn’t see them turn out for healthcare.”
Lack of action on immigration reform or disappointment with current enforcement won’t exactly drive Latinos to join the Republican Party, which has done little to distance itself from its anti-immigration reputation. It may, however, keep Latinos away from the polls.
According to Latino Decisions, a research firm specializing in the Latino vote, of all key constituents in the 2008 Obama victory, “Latino voters appear to be among the least enthusiastic about voting in the 2010 midterm.” As of this month, Latino Decisions found that just 49 percent of Latino registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November—18 percentage points lower than the previous midterm elections in 2006.
Such indifference can have significant consequences. According to exit polls, Latinos played a critical role in Barack Obama’s election to the presidency. Some 70 percent voted for him in 2008, giving him the edge in four crucial swing states: Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida.
In 2010, Latinos could play a bigger role. According to Bendixen & Amandi, nearly one in five Congressional Districts (79 in total, including 54 Democratic seats) is at least 25 percent Latino.
Latinos don’t expect sweeping legislative reform to be achieved quickly and they understand the difficult political climate in Washington. But the lack of progress on immigration will continue to take a toll on Democratic and Republican candidates alike.
