Will the U.S. Congress Pass Immigration Reform This Year?

Q: Guatemalan President Álvaro Colóm visited Washington last month, where he urged the Obama administration to move ahead with comprehensive immigration reform. What are the chances of some type of immigration reform passing the U.S. Congress this year? Do the November midterm elections make it more or less likely that legislators in the U.S. will take up the immigration issue?

A: Luis V. Gutierrez, member of the U.S. House of Representatives (D-Ill.): "The power of the Latino vote will be even more undeniable in the next election. We know that in 20 percent of U.S. House districts, Latinos make up more than 25 percent of the voters. What's more, foreign-born, naturalized U.S. citizens of Latino descent—who represent 40 percent of the Latino voter population—have proven to be a true swing constituency. Democrat or Republican, any politician who has been unwilling to confront our nation's immigration crisis will have these voters to answer to. That includes President Obama, whose short words at the State of the Union address simply did not go far enough for the four million American citizen children whose parents face deportation; the millions of Americans waiting to be reunited with loved ones overseas; hardworking Americans whose security is undermined in the workplace; or the $1.5 trillion lacking from our gross domestic product, all in the absence of real reform. Though he clearly supports the notion that our laws must reflect the contributions immigrants have made to literally build this country, it is clear to me that Congress cannot wait for the president to lay out our timeline for comprehensive reform. We've introduced a proposal in the House of Representatives with the support of 92 cosponsors. It has the strong backing of labor unions, immigration advocates and faith leaders across the country. And it's time for that powerful community to come together and demand hearings. It's also time for the Senate to follow suit. Voters demand this. They care that we do the job we've been elected to do, and that means passing immigration reform that is fair, just and comprehensive. If we walk away from the tough fights—like immigration reform—because they are hard or politically risky, we're not just writing our own political eulogy; we're sentencing millions of families to a life of injustice."

A: Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington: "There is no chance that Congress this year will pass what advocates call 'comprehensive immigration reform'—i.e., legalization (amnesty) for illegal aliens and increased legal immigration in exchange for promises of enforcement. Ethnic advocacy groups and others expected the Obama administration to make an early push for such a bill, but it didn't happen. The reason is that President Obama just doesn't care very much about immigration; he seldom mentions it except before Hispanic gatherings and doesn't include it in recitations of his priorities. In his 70-minute-long State of the Union address, he devoted only one sentence to immigration, and it was so vague as to mean nothing. This is not to say that the president has changed his mind on immigration; he still favors effectively open borders. It's just not important to him. This disinterest in the subject simply amplifies congressional fear of the issue. Since the spectacular failure of the Kennedy-McCain-Bush amnesty initiative in 2007 in the face of public fury, lawmakers are understandably leery of again provoking voters' anger. Views on immigration are split between the public, which favors more hawkish policies, and the elites—both Republican and Democrat—that benefit from mass immigration and don't share the public's concern. But as incumbents look to November and see a wave of populist dissatisfaction on a wide range of issues threatening to turn them out, the last thing they want to do is add yet another reason for angry voters to go to the polls."

A: Alfonso Aguilar, senior fellow at the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles and former chief of the Office of Citizenship at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush: "The chances of immigration reform passing this year are sadly nil because of the lack of presidential leadership on the issue, even though President Obama said he was going to present his own plan last year. That's what he promised the Hispanic community, but he didn't deliver. He only mentioned immigration very briefly in the State of the Union. If the president would have from the start of his administration created an environment of bipartisanship as he promised, then he would have been in a better position to work with Republicans on difficult issues. He's created a very toxic environment, more politicized than ever, and now that we have another Republican senator, that makes his life more difficult because he has to reach out to Republicans. Again, it's not because of the Republicans, it's because he antagonized Republicans. It's a window of opportunity for conservatives, and that's what I've been arguing. People think that Republicans are anti-immigration. But there are only a few who are anti-immigration—a few who are very loud. And because of their very inflammatory language, that makes people generalize about Republicans. If you look back in history, immigrants have fared much better under presidents like Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. Democrats usually pander and then they don't deliver. We have to reach out to Latinos because they've become an important force. Immigration is an issue that we must talk about and approach in a sensible way."