Don’t Bet on U.S. Decline

Pundits here and abroad obsess over it. U.S. politicians blame one another for it. Heck, even my mother is certain of it – the United States is loosing its luster and facing irreversible decline.

Talk of the United States teetering on the brink, while nothing new, has come back with a vengeance in recent months, spurred by the recession, soaring deficits and high unemployment. But for those who stand above the political fray and look at long-term trends, the cries of impending demise are overwrought.

For demographers not even a U.S. decline in the decades to come looks all that certain. Sheer demographics -- the reality of who is here now and who will be here in the decades to come – mixed with certain cultural values, put the United States ahead of other countries.

The relative youth of the U.S. population defines its advantage. The United States has the highest fertility rate among developed nations, 50 percent higher than that of Russia, Germany, Italy, or Spain, and even higher than that of Singapore or Japan. By 2050, one third of the population of some of these nations will be over 65, while only one fifth will be so in the United States.

With a healthier, younger population come real gains. Youth can bring economic dynamism and young people take risks that older people don’t. They purchase more and generate more revenue for governments, while people with children become more committed to the future of their community and their country.

Immigration, according to most demographers, is another major factor in U.S. favor. Immigrants add workers to the U.S. economy and help offset an aging U.S. workforce. Perhaps as critically, they spur innovation and increasingly diversify the economy by creating niche markets. Between 1990 and 2005, immigrants started one quarter of all venture-backed public companies and about 40 percent of the high-tech start-ups operating today, according to the National Venture Capital Association.

Beyond the numbers, certain U.S. cultural values will help determine the kind of contribution immigrants make. More than most nations, the U.S. has shown openness to newcomers and an ability to absorb them while preserving their differences.

James Fallows, writing in the February issue of The Atlantic, sees U.S. openness – to new ideas, new businesses and, in particular, new immigrants -- as one of its most important advantages over other superpowers. The simplest measure of whether a culture is dominant is whether outsiders want to be part of it, he observes in the article How America Can Rise Again.

There is no question though that population growth will present new challenges to the United States and Washington, and that it doesn’t guarantee prosperity or U.S. prominence. Economic analysts estimate that the United States needs to be adding more than 125,000 jobs a month now to keep pace.

But demographers, as well as Fallows, bet that the shifting demographics will help spell boom rather than doom.

This is in part because there are still many untapped sources of prosperity in the United States, according to Joel Kotkin, author of the new book The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050.

The demographer and economist says new affluence may not be found at the traditional metropolitan centers along the coasts as much as in places such as Fargo, North Dakota, or Grand Island, Nebraska, where economies are growing and amenities only previously found in big cities are becoming available.

Kotkin doesn’t hide his enthusiasm for these out of the way places. By mid century, he envisions that many Americans will be happy living in those new lands of opportunity with their good schools, safe streets, and family friendly, ethnically diverse atmosphere.

These remote places will benefit from the adaptability, individualism and work ethic of Americans. Technological advances too will allow many to work from home, making the long commute to work and back a vague memory of the way things were at the turn of the century.

Of course, Americans born here won’t be the only ones to enjoy those new centers of prosperity if they do come to be. After all, the ability to adapt and the determination to work hard to get ahead are values embraced and embodied by most immigrants to this country.

Still for many other immigrants, opportunity will be found in cities such as New York or Los Angeles. Decades from now, they will still have to travel far to work – perhaps even farther than today–and will still be expected to show up even in a snowstorm.

They will continue to scrape by, and society at large will have to be attentive to ìproviding opportunities for upward mobility, Kotkin said in an interview. But as long as that possibility is better than at their places of origin, immigrants will continue to come.