What Latin American Initiatives Will U.S. Lawmakers Tackle?

Q: The U.S. Congress reconvened this week, with 10 months remaining until midterm elections. Much of that time will likely be dominated by domestic priorities like health care and climate change. What legislative initiatives concerning Latin America, such as the pending free trade agreements with Panama and Colombia, immigration reform and the lifting of travel restrictions to Cuba, stand the best chance of passage in 2010? How much will domestic politics affect the willingness of U.S. lawmakers to tackle these issues? What other issues of concern to Latin America and the Caribbean might come up in the U.S. Congress this year?

A: James R. Jones, member of the Advisor board, co-chair of Manatt Jones Global Strategies and former Democratic congressman from Oklahoma: "The disappointment in what this Congress produced during its first session may be matched in this year's session, at least in the eyes of Latin America. Despite very large Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate, the Republican minority has managed to thwart much of the Obama legislative agenda, which included a comprehensive immigration reform and some movement on trade legislation. Now the domestic economy trumps everything else as House and Senate members in both parties eye the potential wrath of voters in November's congressional elections. A comprehensive immigration package will be introduced which will contain an expanded temporary worker program, increased enforcement against illegal immigration at the border and against employers, and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants currently in the United States. President Obama promised the Latin community that he would push this legislation, and Secretary Napolitano has begun laying the foundation for public support. However, time is not on the side of victory. Also, with unemployment still naggingly high, there is no better than a 50-50 chance of final passage. Other trade legislation such as the Panama Free Trade Agreement and the Colombia FTA should be easily passed under normal circumstances. But the U.S. economy is not considered normal yet. However, some important congressional leaders recognize that both Colombia and Panama are good allies and that FTAs should be approved. Thus, I feel a better-than-even chance that the Panama FTA will be approved and slightly less-than-even chance for Colombia. Opening travel and perhaps some trade with Cuba could be the surprise success. It depends on how split the Cuban-American community is on this issue and whether Cuban government leaders make statements or policies that redound negatively in the United States."

A: Jim Kolbe, former Republican congressman from Arizona and a member of the Inter-American Dialogue: "2010 is likely to be a quiet year on the legislative front in Congress when it comes to Latin America. The recent announcements of further Democrat retirements in Congress will make the House and Senate leadership more skittish about taking on controversial issues in a volatile election year. One can predict with almost 100 percent certainty that there will be no movement on immigration reform this year. Approval of the Colombia and Panama FTAs has a slightly better chance, but only if the administration is willing to spend some of its political capital to secure the passage of these agreements. That would appear to be a dubious proposition, even after the legislative deck is cleared when health care reform is enacted. There may be some marginal changes in Cuba sanctions, likely part of an appropriation bill, but not any fundamental change of U.S. policy—at least not anything that requires congressional approval. Congress is likely to find its attention focused on the rapidly deteriorating security conditions in Mexico and on the antics of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and his possible meddling in Colombia. But legislative action will be confined to supporting larger appropriations for Mexico's fight against the narco-traffickers."

A: Dan Erikson, senior associate for U.S. policy at the Inter-American Dialogue: "The first year of the Obama administration has been a very instructive period in terms of evaluating how Congress views its priorities and responsibilities with regard to Latin America and will likely shape future initiatives in 2010. Unfortunately, the evidence to date is not very encouraging, although there are glimmers of hope for the future. By far, the signature feature of the U.S. Congress' dealing with Latin America in 2009 was the overt partisan squabbling about the June 28 coup in Honduras and the U.S. response, resulting in the spectacle of Republican-backed holds on two top administration nominees for Latin America policy, which were only resolved at the end of the year. Thankfully, the Honduran debacle has largely subsided, which means Congress can return its attention to the region with a relatively clean slate, although lingering items of unfinished business like passage of free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama continue to smolder. Cuba policy is once again more likely to generate heat than light, with supporters of repealing the Cuba travel ban attempting to move their legislation forward against entrenched opposition. The Congress will also focus attention on the Inter-American Development Bank's drive for a capital increase and the new elections for the secretary general of the Organization of American States. Haiti policy could emerge as a point of tension late in the year when new presidential elections will be held to replace Rene Preval, and the potential for political turmoil there increases. Although it is impossible to predict which events will most shake up U.S.-Latin American relations in 2010, observers can rest assured that the most engaged members of Congress will jump into the fray to exercise their ideological differences with great fanfare and aplomb, alternately delighting and alienating their counterparts in the region."

***Republished with permission from the Inter-American Dialogue's daily Latin America Advisor newsletter.