U.S. Cuba policy: what next?

After almost a decade of tightening the screws on Cuba, the White House reversed course in April, ordering the lifting of all curbs on family visits and money transfers for Cuban Americans with family still living on the island. The change in policy was designed “to reach out to the Cuban people in support of their desire to freely determine their country’s future,” according to the White House.

Under the new policy Cuban exiles will also be allowed to send more types of humanitarian aid to Cuba, from clothing and personal hygiene items to seeds and fishing equipment, all items most Cubans cannot afford. In addition, U.S. telecommunications companies can apply for licenses to do business in Cuba, such as setting up television and cellular roaming services between the U.S. and Cuba.

The revamped Cuba policy was generally well-received. But it left many unsatisfied. On the one hand, it did not go far enough for some Cuban exiles and other Americans who want more engagement with the island and an outright end to the 47-year-old embargo. On the other hand, it went too far for Miami’s old guard Cuban exiles who fled the island in the 1960s.

How much more the Obama administration plans to do on Cuba policy remains an open question. Past administrations have preferred to keep up the economic stranglehold on Cuba, figuring there was little to be won and plenty to be lost in electoral terms, due to the hard-line Cuban American clout in South Florida. Cuba policy thus became more of a domestic electoral policy issue, rather than a matter of foreign policy.

But that may be changing with the maturing of a new generation of politically more liberal-minded Cuban Americans. The Obama administration seems keen to capitalize on this. But so far Obama has shown little sign of willingness to go beyond his campaign promise of lifting restrictions on Cuban family travel and remittances. Indeed, he has stood by the embargo, saying Cuba needs to send some positive signals first.

Just days after announcing the new measures, Obama cautioned not to expect changes to come too swiftly. A relationship that has been frozen for 50 years, he said, “won’t thaw overnight.” Instead, Obama called for a “transition” in U.S. policy toward Cuba, recognizing that the embargo has failed to bring about political change on the island, yet saying the embargo should stand until Cuba moves forward with political reforms of its own.

Meanwhile, with Congress and the White House consumed with major initiatives on health care, climate change and revival of the economy, the White House and Democratic leaders may be reluctant to engage in an ugly sideshow over Cuba, led by President Raúl Castro and his ailing elder brother, Fidel.

Obama may also be concerned that moving too quickly on Cuba could provide unnecessary fodder for those who already have branded him a socialist. Indeed, there is a limit to what the president can do regarding Cuba. In the wake of the 1996 shoot down over the Florida Straits of two Cuban exile planes belonging to Brothers to the Rescue, president Clinton signed the 1996 Helms-Burton bill, which tightened existing sanctions and codified them into law. Removing the embargo would therefore require another act of Congress and that’s not something it appears ready to do quite yet.

Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, agrees Cuban Americans should be allowed to visit relatives in Cuba more often, but he argues the new measure goes too far. “Unrestricted travel would just allow Castro to rake off the 25 to 30 percent that he rakes off everything,” he says.

Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., who was born in Cuba, says the Castro regime has continued to punish dissidents and doesn’t deserve more favorable treatment. Plus, he says, tourists from Europe, Canada and Latin America have been visiting Cuba for years, with no apparent benefit for the freedom of the Cuban people. “I believe there can be nuanced changes in policy toward Cuba, but that has to be earned by the Cuban government,” he says.

The Obama administration’s policy shift recognizes a major change in the landscape of U.S.-Cuban relations, analysts say. In November, Obama did not win the majority of the Cuban American vote in South Florida, but he did win the majority of votes of younger U.S.-born Cuban Americans under 30. “There’s no downside in Cuban American politics for Obama,” says Alfredo Balsera, a Cuban American communications consultant who worked on the Obama campaign. “There’s only an upside.”

A recent poll conducted by Florida International University indicates that the Miami exile community’s longtime insistence on isolating the Castro regime does not dominate the political scene any more. Sixty-six percent of Cuban Americans support lifting the travel restrictions and 65 percent support sending money. Other polls show the wider public embracing a new approach to Cuba as well. According to a Gallup poll in April, 60 percent of Americans favor re-establishing diplomatic ties with Cuba and 51 percent favor lifting the trade embargo.

Indeed, there is one aspect of the embargo that does begin to look vulnerable. Legislation is already working its way through both houses that would end the travel restrictions for all U.S. citizens, not just Cuban exiles. “The wild card here is Congress. I think Congress might drive this as much as the administration,” says Daniel Waltz, a trade expert who follows Cuba policy at the Washington law firm Patton Boggs.

Advocates insist the bill, which enjoys the backing of senior Republicans and Democrats and several busi- ness and human rights groups, is building enough mo- mentum to pass during this session of Congress. They see it as the first step toward ending the 47-year-old U.S. embargo that severely restricts U.S. dealings with Cuba.

Supporters say allowing U.S. citizens to travel freely to Cuba—and spend money there—would help spread democratic ideals and eventually create opportunities for trade and development. Opponents insist that al- lowing U.S. citizens to frolic on Cuban beaches will only enrich and legitimize the communist regime.

It remains to be seen whether U.S. companies will be able to introduce their wireless and cable technology into Cuba, a state that tightly controls access to information. But that misses the point. By authorizing U.S. companies to off er these services, the Obama administration hopes to show that the United States is willing to open up to Cuba, if Cuba is willing to open up in return.

As more Cuban Americans visit the island, the political and economic pressure for improved ties is likely to build. “It opened my eyes,” says Ricky Arriola, a 40-year-old Cuban American CEO of a Miami-based marketing company, who visited Cuba for the first time in March. “I learned more [about Cuba] in a week there than during 40 years in Miami.”

He was especially surprised how freely Cubans expressed their opinions. “The man on the street is well-informed,” he says, noting how news is pirated from U.S. television channels.

Carlos Saladrigas, 60, a successful Cuban American businessman who co-chairs the Cuba Study Group, was one of a handful of Cuba experts who earlier this year produced a detailed road map for U.S. policy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. The report was led by Carlos Pascual, a high-flying Cuban American diplomat who has been nominated as the new U.S. ambassador to Mexico. The group was invited to the State Department for a 90-minute meeting with Thomas Shannon, top diplomat for Latin America.

They were assured that Obama’s announced policy shift was only a first step. An overall review of Cuba policy is being conducted before any more moves are announced. But how far the Obama administration opens up will depend on how far Cuba is prepared to go.

“The U.S. is willing to move as quickly as Cuba is willing to move,” says Joe Garcia, the former director of the influential Cuban American National Foundation in Miami. Garcia, a leading South Florida Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in November, was briefed in advance by the White House on Obama’s new Cuba policy. “But we are still going to move anyway. By no means is this the end of what Obama is going to do, regardless of what Castro says,” Garcia added, referring to negative comments about Obama by Fidel Castro.

Garcia, who Obama recently named the Director of the Office of Minority Economic Impact in the U.S. Department of Energy, described the early exchanges between the Obama administration and Cuba as “more about defining the terms” of a future dialogue than a sign of irreconcilable differences.